NFL Starters Most Likely to Be Cut Before the NFL Draft

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NFL Starters Most Likely to Be Cut Before the NFL Draft

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    Julio Aguilar/Getty Images

    The initial wave of roster cuts and free-agent signings has passed, but there is still more to come. As teams get a clearer picture of their cap space and how they must shape their rosters for the future, some players have to be cut. 

    In some cases, the cut is a cap casualty: Aging stars with massive cap hits are often victims as teams can no longer afford their contracts while simultaneously building for the future. Alternatively, some players become expendable as new coaching and front office staff push their team in a new direction.

    The final percentage of late cuts are players who simply do not warrant their cap hit, regardless of team cap space or team identity. Some contracts are just bad and need to be moved on from.

    Let’s take a look at a handful of upcoming potential cuts as we delve into the second week of free agency and approach the NFL draft.

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    Jason Behnken/Associated Press

    The Buccaneers are in cap hell.

    Holding a league-low $1.8 million in cap space, the Buccaneers do not have enough money to sign a full draft class. Per Spotrac, Tampa Bay’s seven picks this year are projected to run them roughly $10 million. They could package a few of these picks to move up in the draft and pick fewer players, but even just their first-round pick will cost them more than $5 million in 2019 and put them over the cap limit.

    Unfortunately for the Bucs, there is only one clear way to clear enough cap space to comfortably sign a full draft class: Franchise cornerstone, defensive tackle Gerald McCoy has to be cut.

    McCoy will account for $13 million on the cap if he remains on the roster, but can be cut to free up all $13 million without a dead cap penalty. Without McCoy on the roster, the Bucs would have almost $15 million in available cap space to sign their draft class.

    Cutting McCoy is much more about his cap hit and Tampa Bay’s current state as a team than it is McCoy’s level of play. He missed the Pro Bowl in 2019 for the first time since 2011, but still managed to pick up six sacks, six tackles for loss and 21 quarterback hits. He is still an above-average player and impact defender who would receive interest on the market.

    Additionally, the timing of this cut works out for Tampa Bay given their draft position. They hold the fifth overall pick and should be able to land one of the top interior defensive linemen.

    Alabama’s Quinnen Williams might be a pipe dream outside the top three, but Houston’s Ed Oliver should be there for the taking. Oliver is an explosive and disruptive defensive tackle who was miscast as a zero-tech in Houston’s defensive scheme. The Bucs could take Oliver and immediately slide him into the three-tech role to make up for McCoy’s departure. Adding either player, while cutting $13 million, would be a big win as the team prepares for the future.      

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    Don Wright/Associated Press

    Similar to the Buccaneers’ situation with Gerald McCoy, the Steelers need to cut Joe Haden to clear enough cap space for their upcoming draft class.

    Heading into the weekend, they only had about $8 million in cap space, but that number shrank with the signing of linebacker Mark Barron. He signed a two-year, $12 million deal that will likely put his 2019 cap hit somewhere between $5 and $6 million.

    However, Pittsburgh’s 10-pick draft class will cost approximately $8 million, depending on how many of those picks it keeps. The Steelers don’t have the money to sign their draft class without making a serious roster cut.

    Cornerback Joe Haden is the easy answer. He played well in 2018, rocking a 24th-best 56 percent success rate among qualifying cornerbacks, a mark that edged out Jalen Ramsey and Kyle Fuller. He also notched two interceptions on the year, making him the only Steeler last season to grab more than one. However, it’s not feasible for him to remain on the roster with a $11.9 million cap hit.

    Releasing Haden would incur a $1.9 million dead-cap penalty, but that would still net the Steelers $10 million in cap space. Those savings would be enough to sign their draft class without any cap-limit stress. Pittsburgh probably doesn’t want to cut Haden, but there isn’t much of a choice.

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    Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

    With the signing of linebacker C.J. Mosley, Darron Lee’s roster spot in New York is in jeopardy.

    Lee has failed to live up to his first-round draft pedigree. Despite being as athletic as any coach could dream of, his awareness and reactions are lacking. In three seasons, Lee never showed skill development as a linebacker and was especially lacking in coverage—until last season, when he finally recorded his first three  NFL interceptions. Still, his development in 2018 was negligible.

    On top of lackluster play, Lee was also suspended at the end of 2018 for breaking the league’s banned substance policy. The four-game suspension effectively ended Lee’s season and sent him into the 2019 offseason with a sour final impression.

    Cutting Lee will only save the Jets about $1.5 million on the cap, but his services are no longer needed. New head coach Adam Gase is known for moving on from players in a heartbeat if they do not mesh with him, so Lee is a good candidate to be a typical “new coach, new era” cut.    

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    Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

    Jordan Howard’s time is up in Chicago. Despite a fantastic rookie season in 2016, with over five yards per carry and 1,600 yards from scrimmage, Howard has gotten worse with each passing season. With a 3.7 yards per carry average in 2018, Howard hit rock bottom.

    The Bears were reportedly shopping Howard during the week of the NFL combine. Nothing came of the reported trade talks, but Chicago’s openness about moving him is telling.

    Additionally, the Bears signed free agent running back Mike Davis to a two-year, $6 million deal that gives him a $2 million cap hit this year, nearly the same as Howard’s. Davis is a similar back, in that both want to run downhill and balance through traffic, which may suggest that Chicago is preparing to move on from Howard.

    Parting with Howard would not be a money issue, either. This is a talent issue. Howard’s roughly $2 million cap hit means little to a Bears team with just over $18 million in cap space and no first- or second-round picks.

    The Bears have fallen out of infatuation with Howard, whose style of running does not mesh with second-year head coach Matt Nagy’s spread offense. If Chicago cannot find a trade partner soon, Howard is a good candidate to be cut.   

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    Butch Dill/Associated Press

    Over the past few years, the Saints have owned a surplus of mediocre linebackers—consistently fielding linebackers who were not particularly impactful while not clearly detriments. 2018 signing Demario Davis is the exception, but the notion largely rings true.

    Former Panther A.J. Klein is one of that mediocre bunch. Klein is a functional linebacker who won’t often botch his assignments completely, but seldom makes impact plays. He recorded seven tackles for loss in 2018, which is not a poor number, but isn’t indicative of a disruptive player. Klein’s seven tackles for loss were tied for 88th in the league and put him only one tackle for loss over former Bucs linebacker Kwon Alexander, who played six games in 2018.

    As such, Klein could be cut to make room for one of the few key free agents left such as pass-rushers Justin Houston and Clay Matthews or tight end Jared Cook. 

    Klein has a $6 million cap hit in 2019 but can be cut for a $2.4 million dead-cap penalty. The move would save a total of $3.6 million for the Saints, boosting their available cap space to over $20 million.

    The Saints may be done in free agency and may not need the cap room, but Klein serves little value with Davis, Alex Anzalone and Craig Robertson all rostered. Klein should be the first to go if the Saints scrape up some cash for one last big signing.      

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    Michael Ainsworth/Associated Press

    It is still a mystery how Barkevious Mingo, a notable 2013 draft bust, somehow managed to start a career-high 14 games in 2018. While true that Seattle was desperate for help on the edge, playing Mingo for over 50 percent of the team’s defensive snaps as an edge rusher and linebacker hybrid was a new level of desperation.

    Out of 517 defensive snaps, Mingo sacked the quarterback just once in 2018. He also only accounted for three tackles for loss, two quarterback hits and a single pass defended. As has been the case for his entire career, Mingo was unproductive as a pass rusher and provided little value anywhere else on defense.

    If kept on the roster for 2019, Mingo will account for a hair below $6 million on the cap. Conversely, he could be cut for only $1.1 million in dead-cap penalties. With more than $21 million in cap space already available, Seattle does not necessarily need the money, but they need Mingo’s lack of production even less.    

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